Under The Radar News 05.14.12

A weekly compilation of underreported events in Asia.

China and Central Asian countries sought further cooperation beyond the fossil fuel domain at the China-Central Asia Cooperation Forum on May 7. According to local Chinese media, former Foreign Minister of Tajikistan, Talbak Nazarov, and Deputy Consul General of Uzbekistan in Shanghai, Makhmudov Shukhrat, stated that “China can share its knowledge of solar and wind energy with Central Asian countries.”

India has decided to purchase 145 Ultra Light Howitzer guns from BAE Systems of the United States under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program to update its military hardware. The howitzers will reportedly be deployed along India’s high-altitude frontiers.

According to South Korean Trade Minister Bark Tae-ho, negotiations concerning a free trade agreement (FTA) between South Korea, Japan and China will be conducted during a trilateral summit in Beijing on May 13. China and Japan have agreed to start negotiations whereas South Korea hopes to conclude a FTA with China first.

In the light of a national report released by the Chinese Ministry of Land and Resources, the country has increased its oil and ore dependence. In addition, among the 200 cities monitored across the country, about 55% of the cities lack drinkable groundwater.

Chinese Ministry of National Defense sources said that China and Thailand would conduct a joint military training, codenamed Blue Commando 2012, from May 9 to 29 in Guangdong Province. The training focuses on anti-terrorism and aims to increase mutual understanding between the two countries.

China’s first deepwater drill rig operated by China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) in the South China Sea is reportedly ready to start production. According to the chief geologist of CNOOC Shi Hesheng, the area where the platform is stationed is believed to hold 30 billion cubic meters of gas reserves.

According to Japanese Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka, the government is expected to sign a General Security Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with South Korea. The two countries also negotiated the signing of an Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA), which reportedly “would ensure the reciprocal provision of supplies, such as fuel, between Self-Defense Forces and the South Korean military.”

Leadership Transitions in the Second Artillery Force at the 18th Party Congress: Implications for Roles and Missions

By Mark Stokes and L.C. Russell Hsiao

Leaders in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) strategic strike force will be transitioning during the 18th Party Congress this coming Fall. While the focus of the China-watching community has largely been on the top-brass of the central party leadership, much less is openly discussed about the changing leaderships within the armed services – especially the military’s strategic strike force. Leadership positions within high-placed grades of the services are important indicators of future rank and seniority within the military hierarchy. Furthermore, the backgrounds of these new Second Artillery leaders may reflect upon the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Central Military Commission (CMC) priorities for Second Artillery as the PLA continues to modernize its military capabilities.

What is Second Artillery?

Since its formation, the Second Artillery’s central responsibility has been nuclear deterrence. Yet, as the strategic environment changed, Second Artillery’s mission has gradually expanded to become the CCP and CMC’s principal instrument for achieving strategic effects through direct targeting of enemy centers of gravity.  The process may be seen as a gradual effort to streamline Second Artillery missions into future military operations. Operational firepower is distributed among six corps-level missile bases, a centralized base for storage and handling of nuclear warheads, and operational support brigades/regiments reporting directly to Second Artillery headquarters in Beijing. 

Anticipated Changes at the Top

At the most senior level, Second Artillery Commander and CMC member General Jing Zhiyuan (靖志远; b. 1944) is expected to retire later this year.  Jing Zhiyuan rose through the ranks of Second Artillery’s 52 Base, the corps-level missile command operating in southeastern China, then had assignments with 53 Base in Kunming and 56 Base in Xining.  He served as 52 Base Commander during the 1995-1996 missile tests off the coast of Taiwan.  His assignment as CMC member in 2004 reflects the Second Artillery’s growing prominence in resource allocation debates at the most senior levels of the party.  His replacement remains uncertain.  One possible candidate is Lieutenant General (LTG) Wei Fenghe (魏凤和; b. 1954), who currently serves as PLA General Staff Department (GSD) Deputy Chief of General Staff.  LTG Wei’s tenure in a Military Region-grade position, and likely promotion to full general this summer, could qualify him for CMC membership upon assignment as Second Artillery Commander (China Leadership Monitor, June 28, 2010; China Brief, July 22, 2010). 

Born in Shandong’s Liaocheng City, Wei was involved in intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) missile testing in 1989.  He served as 801 Brigade (Lingbao, 96261 Unit) Chief of Staff and then brigade commander in 1994 at the age of 40 years old.  In 2000, he served as Chief of Staff of 54 Base in Luoyang, and subsequently commanded 53 Base in Kunming the following year.  Promoted to major general in July 2003, Wei Fenghe was assigned to Beijing as Second Artillery Deputy Chief of Staff.  Between 2006 and 2010, Wei Fenghe served as Second Artillery Chief of Staff, the most senior strategic targeting position within the CCP, CMC, and PLA (Bbs.tiexue.net, April 22, 2010).  He was promoted to LTG rank in 2008.

Second Artillery Political Commissar General Zhang Haiyang (张海阳; b. 1949) may continue in his current position.  Given his non-traditional Second Artillery background and princeling status, Zhang also is a candidate for promotion to Director, General Political Department (GPD).  As a side note, current GPD Director, General Li Jinai, spent his first 20 years in the Second Artillery.  Involved in the initial establishment of 52 Base in the mid-1960s, Li Jinai worked his way up the chain to become Deputy Political Commissar of 54 Base, an ICBM corps headquartered in Luoyang, before his GPD assignments.

Second Artillery Role in Strategic Cyber Attack?

If LTG Wei returns to the Second Artillery, his GSD experience would augment that of LTG Wu Guohua (吴国华; b. 1954), a career GSD officer assigned as Second Artillery Deputy Commander in December 2010.  As Director, GSD Third Department – roughly analogous to the U.S. National Security Agency – Wu Guohua directed China’s most powerful intelligence collection enterprise. In addition to its traditional signals intelligence mission, the Third Department may play a leading role in the CCP’s global cyber espionage campaign (Project 2049 Institute, November 11, 2011). Along with the assignment of former GSD Third Department Wu Guohua as Second Artillery Deputy Commander, Wei’s GSD experience offers the CMC, GSD, and Second Artillery an unprecedented level of jointness.

The assignment of a career Third Department officer to the Second Artillery Deputy Commander position is not insignificant and raises an interesting hypothesis.  Could the CMC have assigned Second Artillery the PLA’s strategic computer network attack (CNA) mission? [1]  While this hypothesis is speculative (although all hypothesis are inherently speculative in nature), an internal Second Artillery textbook published in 2004 asserts that the Second Artillery would be adopting a computer network operations (CNO) mission in the future.[2] To be sure, the GSD Third Department provides critical network intelligence, and the Second Artillery Engineering Academy established a Network Warfare Research Center in the 2004-2005 timeframe (Chinamil.com.cn, May 26, 2011). [3] 

Among all PLA service branches, the Second Artillery best understands the art of nodal analysis, strategic targeting, and effects-based operations, which is traditionally under the purview of the air force. [4] However, the PLA Air Force appears to be still in the early stages of transforming from a defense counter-air mission toward an offensive interdiction orientation. 

Rise of the PLA’s Taiwan Missile Faction

Beyond the possible adoption of a CNO mission, the first officer from the PLA’s conventional strategic strike corps has entered the Second Artillery’s most senior ranks.  Newly assigned Second Artillery Chief of Staff, Major General (MG) Gao Jin (高津; b. 1959) spent the last 20 years establishing and expanding the CCP’s conventional strategic strike force intended to coerce Taiwan into a political settlement on Beijing’s terms.

Born in Jiangsu Province, MG Gao represents a new generation of Second Artillery leadership.  A 1985 graduate of the Second Artillery Command Academy, then Lieutenant Colonel Gao Jin led the operational test and training “seed” group that began introduction of the PLA’s first conventional ballistic missiles into the active force in 1991.  The 815 Brigade, China’s first conventional SRBM unit, was based in the Jiangxi City of Leping and may have recently moved to northeast suburbs of Shangrao City.  As 815 Brigade Chief of Staff, Colonel Gao Jin executed missile exercises off the northern and southern shores of Taiwan in July 1995 and March 1996.  Gao Jin rose to command 52 Base, where he served until summer 2011. After a short stint as Second Artillery Deputy Chief of Staff, Gao Jin replaced LTG Lu Fu’en (陆福恩; b. 1954) as Second Artillery Chief of Staff in December 2011.  LTG Lu, along with LTG Wang Jiurong (王久荣; b. 1951) and Wu Guohua, is now one of three Deputy Commanders.

New Leadership for Second Artillery’s Conventional Strategic Strike Corps

The senior figure overseeing the probable introduction of the DF-21 anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) variant into the active force, Major General Zhou Yaning [周亚宁], has assumed command of 52 Base.  Replacing Gao Jin in July 2011, MG Zhou had commanded 53 Base since 2009.  Zhou served as brigade commander of the 817 Brigade in Yong’an (Fujian Province) and then 52 Base Equipment Department Director.  As 53 Base Commander, Zhou had replaced MG Gao Xiuren, who previously served as 52 Base Chief of Staff.  

Consistent with previous assignment patterns, a seasoned 52 Base officer replaced Zhou Yaning as 53 Base Commander (Yunnan.mca.gov.cn, January 16, 2012).  MG Shao Yuanming [邵元明] now oversees the probable first ASBM brigade in Guangdong, along with two other medium range ballistic missile brigades, one DH/CJ-10 land attack cruise missile brigade, five support regiments, and possibly a brigade-level training center.  Before assuming his current position, MG Shao was 52 Base Chief of Staff.

Conclusion

While military strategies and advanced platforms are important indicators of future capabilities, personnel is equally if not more important in the overall context of understanding China’s military development. After all, an army is only as smart and strong as its generals and soldiers. As the CCP and PLA make their transitions during the 18th Party Congress this fall, the China-watching community should invest more efforts to understand the backgrounds and proclivities of leaders in Second Artillery. 

In light of the growing prominence of Second Artillery in Chinese military operations, a deeper understanding of the roles and future direction of this operationally significant service may be warranted. At the same time, leaders within high-placed grades of each service are important indicators of future rank and seniority within the military hierarchy – and there is logic pattern to why someone with their particular experience and qualifications are where they are. Given the apparent emphasis being placed on cyber operations by the top leadership, one single organization within the PLA likely is charged with planning for and conducting deliberate cyber attack against computer networks upon which opposing national command authorities and supporting critical infrastructure rely.  If supported by GSD intelligence, integration of nuclear, conventional strike, and strategic cyber warfare planning, programming, and budgeting within a single Second Artillery headquarters staff department would be significant. At the very least, the promotion patterns of Second Artillery leaders may be seen as reflection upon the CCP and CMC priorities for the force as the PLA continues to move to more jointness and modernize its military capabilities under a new strategic environment. 

Mark Stokes is the Executive Director of the Project 2049 Institute. L.C. Russell Hsiao is a senior research fellow at the institute. 

Notes:

 
1.    There is no explicit and authoritative source linking the Second Artillery with a CNA mission.  A CNO mission could be as simple as formation of a regiment for information security and exploiting, or attacking an enemy’s nuclear command and control network.  Candidate units likely report directly to Second Artillery Headquarters Department, such as the Technical Reconnaissance Group headquartered in the Beijing suburb of Huilongguan or Network Security Group in Qinghe.
2.    Yu, Jixun, ed.  2004.  Second Artillery Campaign Science. Beijing: PLA Press, 142.
3.    The GSD Fourth Department’s core competency is operational-level electronic countermeasures, although the department’s leadership may have lobbied for the strategic CNA mission several years ago.
4.    Deptula, David. 2001. Effects-Based Operations: Changes in the Nature of Warfare. Virginia: Aerospace Education Foundation. http://www.afa.org/mitchell/reports/0901ebo.pdf.

Under the Radar News 05.07.12

A weekly compilation of underreported events in Asia.
 

The U.S. is set to double military aid to the Philippines and engage in “real-time information sharing” on the Philippines’ maritime territory. The increased aid arrives at a time when China and the Philippines are at a stand-off over a disputed shoal in the South China Sea.

Aung San Suu Kyi premiered in the Burmese Parliament last week, taking public office for the first time since her two-decade long house arrest. Meanwhile 2,000 government forces have moved into a key rebel stronghold in the north and are preparing for a major assault on Kachin minority rebels.

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Under The Radar News 04.30.12

A weekly compilation of underreported events in Asia.

Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario once again rejected China’s historical claim on the Scarborough Shoal—also known as Huangyan Island—in the disputed South China Sea. If tension in the Scarborough Shoal worsens, Secretary del Roario said that Manila may consider asking the United Nations General Assembly to intervene.

On April 25, Pakistan announced the successful launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile Hatf, IV Shaheen-1A, which is capable of carrying nuclear and conventional warheads. According to the Indian press, Islamabad had informed New Delhi of the missile test in the Indian Ocean in accordance with a May 2005 agreement concerning pre-notification of flight testing of ballistic missiles.

According to the South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin, there is sign that North Korea will launch another rocket. The North Korean Outer Space Technology Committee claims that it has identified the reason for the failed launch on April 13. An unnamed expert cited by the Korean press questioned the assertion since “it takes 10 to 12 months to analyze causes of the launch failure and find solutions.”

Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou stated that his administration will relax restrictions on Chinese students’ enrollment at Taiwanese schools to encourage cross-Strait developments. Ma reportedly said that “freedom, democracy and human rights are core values celebrated by Taiwanese and he urged China to work harder to ‘move closer’ to Taiwan in those areas.”

Hong Kong Chief Executive-elect C.Y. Leung announced the "zero quota" proposal to restrict women from mainland China from giving birth in Hong Kong’s public hospitals unless they are married to Hong Kong citizens. Private hospitals agreed to follow suit.

An addition of about 310,000 square kilometers to Japan's continental shelf has been approved by the United Nations' Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. The newly claimed oceanic territory mainly in the Shikoku Basin Region and the Ogasawara Plateau Region reportedly may have rare metals and manganese.

China and Russia is strengthening military cooperation. During a six-day joint naval exercise in the Yellow Sea from April to 22 to 27, seven Russian ships and 16 Chinese naval vessels with two submarines reportedly participated in the drills.

Under The Radar News 04.23.12

A weekly compilation of underrepotred events in Asia.

The Global Times, which is a subsidiary of a flagship newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee, suggested in an editorial that Bo Xilai, former Secretary of the CPC Chongqing Municipal Committee, overestimated his political clout and that there were no intraparty power struggles since the “central government has the absolute authority to judge local practices.”

On April 19, India announced that the successful launch of Agni-V, a long-range (over 5,000 kilometers) nuclear-capable missile, was simply for “deterrence,” according to the Defense Research Development Organization (DRDO) Chief V.K. Saraswat. Chinese official media reportedly questioned the impact and the accuracy of the missile.

Japan guaranteed the Mekong region countries of Cambodia, Laos, Burma, Thailand and Vietnam $7.35 billion in official development aid (ODA) after the 4th Mekong-Japan Summit on April 21. Additionally, the six leaders participating in the conference adopted Tokyo Strategy 2012 with the aim to strengthen cooperation in infrastructure establishment over the next three years.

South Korean military unveiled two domestically designed and produced missiles-the Hyunmu-3 cruise missile and the Hyunmu-2 ballistic missile. The Hyunmu-3, which has a range of 1,500 km, is claimed to be more accurate than the U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missile while the Hyunmu-2 is limited to 300 km.

A survey released by the China Geological Survey shows that land subsidence in China has worsened due to an excessive reduction of the water table and the growing number of skyscrapers. According to the survey, land subsidence may imperil the country’s railway, especially the high-speed rail and increase the risk of urban flooding. It also points out that the most vulnerable areas include the North China Plain, the Yangtze River Delta and the Fenwei Basin.

Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou reportedly stated that Taiwan would pay attention to China’s human rights development as the administration presented its human rights report. However, according to local media, President Ma did not “commit to making human rights part of cross-strait negotiations.”

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Thai Premier Yingluck Shinawatra held talks in Beijing on April 19 to promote trade and strengthen comprehensive cooperation between the two countries. They also discussed the regional high-speed railway network connecting southern China to Laos, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.

Under The Radar News 04.16.12

A weekly compilation of underreported events in Asia.

The North Korean ‘Greater Leader’, Kim Jong-il, reportedly ordered his successors to continue developing nuclear power, long-range missile and biochemical weapons in a note written two months before he passed away on December 17, 2011. In the secret note cited by the Korean media, Kim stated that “China is currently the closest country to us, but the one we [North Korea] should be careful of the most.”

The China-Africa Development Fund, which was set up in March 2007, reportedly shifted the focus of its investments from resources to infrastructure, manufacturing and agriculture. The change in focus is in line with Africa’s economic strategy to prioritize industrialization and urbanization. The fund also focused on the control of Namibia's Husab uranium project.

Following the success of the Burmese opposition party-National League for Democracy (NLD) in the National Assembly by-elections on April 1, Aung San Suu Kyi will take her seat in Parliament to attend the new session of the lower house on April 23.

According to a decree issued by China’s Supreme Court on April 9, courts can reject government demands to demolish housing if the compensation for residents is deemed unfair. The judicial interpretation would take effect on April 10 but it remains unclear “whether administrative bodies or courts are responsible for undertaking forced demolitions.”

A telephone survey released by Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs council (MAC) on April 12 showed that 32.4% of 1079 respondents favored “maintaining the status quo and making a decision later.” According to local media reports, the result of the poll suggested growing concerns about the pace of cross-strait exchanges.

Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma announced that India would allow foreign direct investment from Pakistan to boost bilateral trade after meeting with Pakistani counterpart Makhdoom Amin Fahim on April 13. Pakistan will also lift restrictions on items traded across the land border at Attari-Wagah.

According to unnamed sources cited by the Japanese media, the United States contemplated Japan’s proposal to share expenditure on the development of a U.S. base in Tinian, one of the Northern Mariana Islands in the Pacific. Tokyo reportedly made the offer to fend off Washington’s request for Japan’s increase in the expenses of the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan.

Taiwan's Role in Air-Sea Battle

By Mark Stokes and L.C. Russell Hsiao

U.S. Representative Randy Forbes (R-Va) published an article entitled “America’s Pacific Air-Sea Battle Vision” calling upon Congress to support the Pentagon’s vision for Air-Sea Battle—a concept designed to improve the joint and combined ability of air and naval forces to project power in the face of anti-access and area denial challenges. More specifically, Representative Forbes pointed out that the United States should “work to bring our allies into this effort.” Indeed, in order for the United States to effectively project power in an anti-access, area denial (A2/AD) environment, networked alliances and ad hoc coalition partnerships would be essential in making U.S. power projection in the Asia-Pacific more resilient and responsive to both the internal and external dynamics of the emerging regional security challenges.

To be sure, the United States faces a number of challenges in meeting its security commitments in the Asia-Pacific region. Beyond uncertainty, complexity, and rapid change, challenges include growing resource constraints and an increasingly assertive and capable People’s Republic of China (PRC). At least one driver for rethinking U.S. defense strategy is the growing ability of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to complicate U.S. ability to project joint power and operate in the Asia-Pacific region. These emerging PLA A2/AD capabilities not only could complicate U.S. ability to operate, but also to the ability of defense establishments in the region to deny the PLA air superiority and command of the seas. Anti-access threats, designed to prevent an opposing force from entering an operational area, include long-range precision strike systems that could be employed against bases and moving targets at sea, such as aircraft carrier battle groups. Area denial involves shorter-range actions and capabilities designed to complicate an opposing force’s freedom of action in all domains (i.e., land, air, space, sea and cyber).

Air-Sea Battle and the Joint Operational Access Concept (JOAC) transcend pure operational issues and the roles of services – cooperation with allies and ad hoc coalition partners in the region is critical for success of Air Sea Battle and assured operational access. As former Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen said, Air-Sea Battle is "a prime example of how we need to keep breaking down stovepipes between services, between federal agencies and even between nations.” He further noted that the Services should "integrate our efforts with each other and with our civilian counterparts" and "work seamlessly with old allies and new friends." Air Sea Battle and the broader JOAC shore up deterrence, and demonstrate commitment to a continuing U.S. ability to reassure allies and partners in the region and resist Chinese military coercion.

Addressing these challenges requires greater collaboration not only within the U.S. defense establishment, but effective leveraging of talents of allies and ad hoc coalition partners in the region. The U.S. reportedly has begun examining how to diversify defense relations with traditional allies in the region, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia. Yet, little consideration appears to have been given to the significant role that the Republic of China (ROC, or Taiwan) could play in an evolving U.S. defense strategy, including the JOAC and Air-Sea Battle. The ROC’s future and U.S. interests in regional security are intimately related. Indeed, Taiwan is a core interest of the United States and has a pivotal role to play as an ad hoc coalition partner in Air-Sea Battle, JOAC, and the strategic re-balancing in the Asia-Pacific.

The Taiwan Scenario in U.S. Defense Planning

First, Taiwan should be the central guiding focus of defense planning in the Asia-Pacific region. The most stressing illustrative planning scenario guiding JOAC and Air-Sea Battle-related requirements should be a PLA amphibious invasion of Taiwan with minimal warning. Based on a premature and faulty assumption that cross-Strait trade and investment inevitably will lead toward Taiwan’s democratic submission to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) authoritarian rule, prominent observers have asserted that the focus of U.S. defense planning should shift toward the South China Sea and defense of the global commons.

While freedom of navigation is important, shifting our focus entirely over to uninhabited specks of land and access to preferred waterways for shipping therein are not as salient as defending a fellow democracy and critical node in the global economic supply chain. To be sure, what may happen to Taiwan should not be viewed in isolation from the South China Sea. Beyond the relative saliency of Taiwan, U.S. law under the Taiwan Relations Act stipulates that it is in the U.S. interest “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.” The myth that Taiwan is inevitably moving into Beijing’s orbit certainly serves CCP interests. This ostensibly self-fulfilling prophesy bears watching. Due to the inherent complications associated with an amphibious invasion, Taiwan is and will remain defendable.

The PRC’s main strategic direction remains unchanged. It is Taiwan that the CCP obsesses over. Disputes with neighbors around the South China Sea can be modulated at will. However, Taiwan and its democracy present an existential threat to the CCP, and the PLA has done nothing to reduce its military posture opposite the island. In fact, its missile infrastructure has grown as new units have been put into place and more advanced ballistic missiles introduced. If strategic planners must choose between freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and defense of Taiwan as the basis of U.S. force planning, one would hope that President Obama does not abandon Taiwan.

Taiwan as a Partner in the Joint Operational Access Concept

What are Taiwan’s potential contributions? For starters, Taiwan is the principle security partner in the region that is willing and able to develop the kind of force needed for networked, integrated deep interdiction operations in an A2/AD environment. Taiwan’s knowledge of single points of failure in the PLA’s air and missile defense system could someday save many lives. Maintaining Taiwan’s capacity to interdict single points of failure in the PLA’s A2/AD system could relieve the United States of part of its heavy operational burden and reduce risks of escalation. For Taiwan, sufficient self defense requires an ability to interdict and neutralize critical nodes in the PLA Second Artillery and other increasingly integrated operational systems opposite Taiwan.

Common Operating Picture

Taiwan is uniquely positioned to contribute to regional situational awareness of the air, space, sea and cyber domains. Peacetime air surveillance data can be fused with other sources of information to better understand PLA Air Force tactics and doctrine. Long range UHF early warning radar data could fill a gap in regional space surveillance. The ROC Navy has a firm grasp of the unique undersea geography and hydrological environment of the Western Pacific Ocean. In the cyber domain, DoD may tap the expertise on Taiwan, the earliest and most intense target of Chinese computer network operations. Taiwan’s geographic position and willingness to contribute to a regional common operational picture, including maritime domain awareness, air surveillance, and space surveillance and tracking, could be of significant value for both disaster response and military purposes.

More care must be taken to build in firewalls to ensure potential adversaries are unable to penetrate U.S. networks through those of allies and partners. Furthermore, release of space-based systems to Taiwan, including broadband communications and remote sensing satellites, could contribute to broader regional situational awareness architecture not only for military purposes but also for civil disaster preparedness and response. Taiwan’s participation in regional maritime domain awareness architecture may also be worthy of consideration.

Defense Industrial Cooperation

DoD could consider expanding cooperative R&D with Taiwan’s Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology (CSIST), and/or private industry. Taiwan is a world leader in technology innovation, particularly in applied information and communications technology, which should be leveraged for mutual benefit. Isolation of CSIST, which houses a significant reserve of defense research and engineering talent, can be counterproductive.

Diesel Electric Submarines

The Executive Branch also should honor commitments made under the Bush administration to assist Taiwan in its acquisition of diesel electric submarines. Taiwan’s requirement for diesel electric submarines has been validated for island defense, and could play a critical role in interdicting amphibious ships transiting from mainland China in waters northwest and southwest of Taiwan, counter-blockade operations, and surveillance. Submarines are a credible, survivable deterrent.

Taiwan as a Testbed

DoD and counterparts on Taiwan could consider the formation of an innovative capabilities working group consisting of representatives from DoD, think tanks, and selected defense industries on the U.S. side, and Ministry of Defense, think tank, and defense industry representatives on the Taiwan side. Possible focus areas could include cruise missile defense, anti-submarine warfare (ASW), multi-domain awareness, and Taiwan’s central role in the U.S. rebalancing toward Asia.

Educational Exchanges

No free and open society understands China as well as the one resident on Taiwan. At the current time, few U.S. military foreign area officers conduct in-country training on Taiwan, and there are no known students attending the ROC’s National Defense University (NDU) or other intermediate/senior service schools. More educational exchanges between the two defense establishments are warranted, particularly for junior officers and NCOs. The number of bilateral conferences on the PLA has dwindled over the years. In the meantime, DoD has been an ardent suitor in pursuing deeper and broader military-military relations with the PLA.

Political Paradox in the Taiwan Strait

A paradox currently characterizes cross-Strait relations. On the one hand, economic interdependence between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait reduces the likelihood of conflict. Yet because Taiwan’s democratic system of government – an alternative to mainland China’s authoritarian model – presents an existential challenge to the CCP, the PRC continues to rely on military coercion to compel concessions on sovereignty. The objective reality of the matter is that Taiwan, under its existing ROC constitutional framework, exists as an independent sovereign state. Until the CCP renounces use of force to resolve political differences in the Taiwan Strait and implement a substantive reduction in its military posture directed against Taiwan, America should deepen and broaden defense relations with the ROC. A proper starting point is an acknowledgment of Taiwan’s pivotal role in the U.S. rebalancing strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.

Conclusion

Taiwan, with foreign assistance as needed, could implement cost effective solutions to meet the world’s most stressing military challenge, and could be viewed as a transformational test bed for others to emulate. Taiwan’s defense could play a role in fostering innovation and hosting experimental test beds for operational concept development. Taiwan faces the most stressing military challenge in the world – if selected operational problems could be solved for Taiwan (e.g., integrated air/missile defense and ASW), they could be resolved everywhere.

At the same time, Taiwan and the U.S. may find areas in which efforts could be integrated for mutual benefit, including, but not limited to, defense-related R&D, and low cost, high quality electronic components that could reduce costs for U.S. weapon systems. Taiwan is one of the largest U.S. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers in the world, and industrial and technological cooperation has been limited to date. Arms sales contribute to the Air-Sea Battle through promotion of combined interoperability and cost savings to U.S. Air Force and Navy via larger production runs and benefits of economies of scale. Also, the more Taiwan can do, then theoretically, the less required of the United States. However, the relative weight granted to arms sales through FMS channels implies a patron-client relationship. Re-balancing U.S.-Taiwan defense relations into a true partnership could be more sustainable.

As Taiwan attempts to become more self-reliant in its defense, and as the U.S. considers Air-Sea Battle concepts, development of cutting-edge technology is critical, as is a sound economy from which resources can be drawn for force modernization, manpower, and readiness. One underlying goal of Air-Sea Battle is doing more with less in an era of budgetary constraints. Along these lines, an initiative also could include options for enhancing U.S.-ROC defense industrial cooperative in a way that could provide cost effective and advanced defense articles as well as benefiting Taiwan's industrial base and U.S. requirements. Among other concepts, a preliminary assessment could focus on how to better leverage Taiwan’s innovativeness in cost effective information and communications technology (ICT) design, research and development, and production. Also warranted could be potential cooperative weapon systems development programs, such as small diesel electric submarines and cost effective short take off and landing aircraft.

Among the states in Asia-Pacific region, the ROC has the greatest interest in the success of Air-Sea Battle. U.S. defense policy is designed to counter China’s strategy of raising the cost of U.S. power-projection operations in the Western Pacific to prohibitive levels, thereby deterring any American effort to meet its defense obligations to allies and friends in the region, including Taiwan. As one key report by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Analysis (CSBA) assessment notes, Air-Sea Battle must account for geostrategic factors, such as U.S. treaty and legal obligations to defend formal allies and friends in the region. Even more importantly, the report stresses: “AirSea Battle is not a U.S.-only concept. Allies such as Japan and Australia, and possibly others, must play important enabling roles in sustaining a stable military balance.” Among all potential coalition partners, none is potentially as important as Taiwan.

Mark Stokes is the Executive Director of the Project 2049 Institute. L.C. Russell Hsiao is a senior research fellow at the institute. An adapted version of this article entitled "Why U.S. Military Needs Taiwan" was published by The Diplomat on April 13, 2012.

Under The Radar News 04.09.12

A weekly compilation of underreported events in Asia.

Indian Chief Ministers will reportedly meet on May 5 to deliberate whether to set up the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC). In spite of some political opposition from several states, Home Minister P. Chidambaram is expecting a “good outcome” for the meeting.

According to the China Software Testing Center—a research institution affiliated to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology—non-binding guidelines on the protection of personal online data are going to be issued this year. Under the guidelines, data collected with users' approval will be deleted in a timely manner to avoid possible abuse.

Vietnamese Chief Government Inspector Huynh Phong Tranh called for the government to safeguard people’s interests in the land revocation process. The Government Inspectorate reportedly discovered economic violations worth VND 30.72 trillion during the first quarter of 2012 as the agency inspected eleven state-owned groups, ministries and provinces.

The South Korean government will submit a bill to strengthen its management of sovereign waters encircling the Dokdo/Takeshima Island and Ieo Island ‘as early as’ June. The bill will reportedly include setting up maritime police bases with an aim to clamp down on seaborne invasion.

According to the Cambodian Minister of Industry, Mines and Energy, China National Heavy Machinery Corporation is constructing a 22 kilovolt electricity transmission line in eastern Cambodia.

Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) stated that an advance French remote sensing satellite, SPOT-6, will be launched during the second half of 2012 as an agreement that has been finalized between Antrix Corporation Limited, the commercial arm of ISRO, and Astrium SAS, a company under EADS, France.

Japan is considering providing the Republic of the Philippines with patrol vessels and a sea-ground communications system as part of its official development assistance

Under The Radar News 04.02.12

A weekly compilation of events in Asia.

According to the Chongqing Economy and Informationization Commission, the “Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe” Platform Company will be established in April. The company is being billed as a new coordination platform for the transportation of goods along the Eurasia Land Bridge.

On March 27, China and Ireland signed three agreements to promote cooperation in science and research innovation, investments and trade. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao also welcomed Ireland’s new Asia strategy of placing Sino-Ireland trade relationship high on its list of priorities.

Taiwanese legislators of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the ruling Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) urged the Ministry of National Defense (MND) to take a more active role in developing in acquisitions of new submarines.

According to the Director General of Information and Public Relations Department at the Burmese Ministry of Information, U Ye Htut, the print media law (second draft) is being prepared and private daily newspapers are expected to be allowed by the end of 2012.

Japanese Defense Minister Naoki Tanaka ordered the Self-Defense Forces to intercept rockets launched by Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) “if necessary.” Ground-based Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptors will be deployed to the Okinawa Prefecture along with three Aegis-equipped destroyers carrying the sea-based Standard Missile-3 interceptors.

After the meeting in Seoul on March 28, Vietnamese Premier Nguyen Tan Dung and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak agreed to cooperate on balancing bilateral trade. The two sides also signed an agreement and two memoranda of understanding to strengthen comprehensive collaboration.

Following the ouster of Bo Xilai as Chinese Communist Party Secretary of Chongqing, half of Chongqing Committee’s leadership is expected to be replaced. On March 27, Chen Cungen, who was appointed as Director of the Chongqing Municipal People's Congress Standing Committee this January, was also removed.

Indian Army Chief General VK Singh’s leaked secret letter on India’s poor state of defense preparedness sparked a political turmoil. Some parties regard the leak as damaging to national security and demanded General Singh’s ouster.

David Asher - Party of Fraud: Hizballah's Criminal Enterprises

Under The Radar News 03.26.12

A weekly compilation of events in Asia.

Taiwan will reportedly lift barriers on public infrastructure development by Chinese investors. The plan could go into effect as early as at the end of March. The main opposition party—Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), however, criticized the government’s plan, highlighting that China is not yet a member of the World Trade Organization’s Government Procurement Agreement (WTO-GPA) and has poor labor practices and standards that could expose Taiwan to many risks.

According to Hanoi’s Party Secretary Pham Quang Nghi, the Communist Party of Vietnam will implement a vote of confidence on officials in state agencies to assess their prestige and qualification. Mr. Nghi believes that this mechanism could supervise personal asset declaration of party members so as to curb corruption.

On March 22, the Japanese government concluded negotiations on a trilateral investment accord with China and South Korea with the aim to sign the agreement at a summit in Beijing in mid-May. The trilateral accord reportedly includes provisions concerning the protection of intellectual property rights and a prohibition on demanding technology transfer.

Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, secretary of state of Cambodia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, reportedly stated that the country would strengthen its comprehensive cooperation with China.

On March 23, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced a reform of the nation’s gas pricing policy to stimulate natural gas production. New Delhi has also invested in the creation of large-gasification facilities in a bid to cater to the growing demand for gas.

On March 25, the 1,200-member Election Committee declared the former convener of the Executive Council, Leung Chun-ying, as the new Chief Executive of Hong Kong. In his victory speech, Leung pledged to maintain the freedoms and rights Hong Kong people enjoy today.

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who served in United Nations (UN) forces in Bosnia, announced that Indonesia will provide UN peacekeeping forces with three Russian-made Mi-17 transport helicopters after meeting with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on March 20.

Under The Radar News 03.19.12

A weekly compilation of events in Asia.

According to the official-Xinhua News Agency, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun voiced Beijing’s concerns to North Korea’s ambassador to China, Ji Jae Ryong, about the DPRK’s plan to launch a satellite next month. North Korea claimed that the launch is for peaceful scientific purposes rather than a long-range missile test.

On March 13, Bank Tejarat, Iran’s third-largest bank, was blacklisted by Japan for its alleged assistance to Tehran in developing its nuclear program. According to Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba, an asset freeze has been imposed on the bank and there will be “slight impact” on the Japanese economy.

Vietnam denounced Chinese actions of opening bids for oil exploration near the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokesman Luong Thanh Nghi asked China to “cease all activities” and respect Vietnam’s sovereignty over the islands.

Since European insurers refused to insure crude shipments exported from Iran, Shipping Corp of India—the country’s largest shipping firm—has reportedly held talks with local insurance companies to cover cargoes and vessels for imports from Iran.

Burma’s ‘new law’ revokes the ban on public assembly and allows peaceful protests, however, New-York-based Human Rights Watch criticized the law for not reaching international standards. More specifically, the advocacy group urged Burma’s parliament to rule out “the threat of imprisonment as a penalty for permit violations.”

Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa stated that the deployment of U.S. marines in Australia's northern territory would improve regional stability as he and Indonesian Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro discussed defense agreements with Australian counterparts on March 15.

The Chongqing Daily, a state-run media, reported on March 16 that local officials and residents should toe the party line and pledge loyalty to President Hu Jintao and the new party-secretary in Chongqing, Vice Premier Zhang Dejiang.

Under The Radar News 03.12.12

A weekly compilation of events in Asia. 

In an attempt to assert Vietnamese sovereignty over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, a delegation of six Buddhist monks will be sent to restore the shrines on the islands. China, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also claim parts of the islands.

Singapore and Mongolia have agreed to collaborate in information technology through the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on March 6. According to the MOU, projects will include e-Government, enterprise architecture, and cloud computing.

India’s ruling Congress Party faced a crushing defeat in a local election on March 6. In the state of Uttar Pradesh—located in northern India—the Congress Party won only 35 seats in the 403-seat state assembly while the Samajwadi Party attained 224 seats to establish a clear majority.

According to the Korea National Oil Corporation—one of South Korea’s most important industrial powerhouse—rising oil prices in the country are caused by international sanctions imposed on Iran. Thorny problems like inflation, soaring energy costs and a weak currency are causing political difficulty for the Lee Myung-bak administration as the parliamentary and presidential elections approach.

In light of Indian farmers concerns over falling prices of cotton, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh ordered a review of the decision to ban cotton exports by the Commerce Ministry. China’s cotton industry, which reportedly purchased 80% of Indian production, also criticized the ban as irresponsible.

The Thai and Japanese prime ministers emphasized the importance of the economiccooperation between the two nations during their talks in Tokyo on March 7. The two sides agreed to collaborate closely on disaster management, especially on flood control measures.

According to the Chinese minister of water resources, Mr. Chen Lei, China is willing to share its experiences in water conservation and will sign an agreement regarding water management with the European Union during the World Water Forum in Marseille, France, from March 12 to 17.

Under The Radar News 03.05.12

A weekly compilation of events in Asia.

According to senior Japanese diplomatic officials, Tokyo has ruled out imposing carbon tax or introducing a carbon price as the country continues to face power shortages after the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck the country last March.

The Vietnamese government accused Chinese authorities of assaulting its fishermen in the South China Sea. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei denied the accusation and stated that Vietnam should respect China’s sovereignty over the Xisha Islands, also known as Paracel Islands.

The United States and South Korea launched its annual military exercise codename ‘Key Resolve’ on 27 February. Pyongyang denounced the exercise as "an unpardonable infringement upon the sovereignty and dignity of the DPRK." The exercise involves a 12-day drill including computer-simulated war games.

The United States is reportedly planning to send 20,000 tons of food aid to North Korea per month for a year in response to North Korea’s reported agreement to suspend its uranium-enrichment tests. Concerns remain over how the aid may be distributed in North Korea.

India’s biggest shipping company, Shipping Corp of India, was reportedly coerced to cancel crude oil shipment from Iran due to European insurance companies’ refusal to provide necessary insurance coverage. New sanctions imposed by the European Union this January restricts European insurance companies from compensating ships delivering Iranian crude and oil products anywhere in the world.

According to Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) Deputy Director Khin Maung Win, Myanmar’s Information Minister agreed to grant visas to journalists based outside the country. Previously, reporters from non-state sanctioned broadcasters would face criminal charges if they were caught covering events in Burma.

Consumption of sugar continues to increase in the world’s two largest sugar consumers: China and India. According to Tom McNeill, director at an Australia-based company Green Pool Commodity Specialists, the Asian region faces a long-term sugar deficit, which will help to absorb excessive supply of sugar from other regions.

Under the Radar News 02.27.12

A weekly compilation of events in Asia.

China’s largest oil producer, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), is increasingly concerned about political risks in the Midler East and North Africa. CNPC is reportedly establishing an industrial park in Dubai’s “Free Zone.” According to the Chinese media: “CNPC will use the park as an equipment store in the event of an emergency withdrawal from the Middle East and North Africa.”

According to the Brussels-based Global Wind Energy Council, global wind power generation capacity has surged 21% from a year before and at the current rate it will surpass global nuclear power output within five years. Even though faced with severe economic conditions, developing countries in Asia, South America and Africa have increased their wind power capacity in 2011 and so did Germany and Britain.

On February 21, Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik informed members of the Sindh (Bhutto's home province) Assembly that former president Pervez Musharraf would be arrested to face trial in the former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto assassination case.

During the meeting of Group of 20 (G-20) finance ministers in Mexico City on February 26, India proposed establishing “BRICS Development Bank,” which will be funded by developing countries since existing multilateral lending bodies have not funded developing nations effectively.

The free trade agreement between South Korea and the United States (KORUS-FTA) will go into effect on March 15. Yet, controversies remain among South Koreans as protests against the agreement continue. South Korean President Lee Myung-bak argues that the FTA will increase exports to the United States and create more jobs; however, opposition parties said that the deal will hurt the country’s rural economy.

Taiwan’s Navy confirmed that a domestic submarine program will begin next year. The Navy reportedly sought support for the budget from legislators in the Legislative Yuan’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. According to the local media, three countries have expressed interest in either helping Taiwan manufacture its own submarine prototype or selling ships recently decommissioned from their own fleets.

Beijing’s preferred candidate for Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Henry Tang, is facing growing public pressure to end his political campaign after it was revealed that he leased a luxury property in Shenzhen without declaring it to the Executive Council. Tensions between Hong Kong people and mainlanders have intensified this year as the election heats up.